County releases growth strategy
The Province of Ontario laid down its 25-yeargrowth targets for the Golden Horseshoe in the Growth Plan for theGreater Golden Horseshoe adopted in 2006. The plan contains specificson where and how this area will grow and the infrastructure that may beneeded to support that growth.
In Northumberland, the population goal is 96,000 by 2031, anincrease of 16,000 from 2001 -- an annual average increase of 473 usingcurrent figures. (From 2001 to 2006 the rate was 741 per year.) TheGrowth Plan also indicates the number of jobs in the county willincrease from 29,000 to 33,000.
On Oct. 22 Northumberland County released the strategy it mightuse to begin to meet those provincial targets. The report is meant tobe a basis for discussion of Northumberland County's future.
The strategy, created by the county and its sevenmember-municipalities, will guide the actions employed to accommodatethe expected changes. Changes to municipal Official Plans must becompleted by June 6, 2009.
As well, local planning decisions are impacted by theProvincial Policy Statement of 2005 which requires planning for theintensification of existing developed areas and the consideration ofbrownfield development before considering urban expansions. This meansthat the member municipalities will have to carry out detailed analysesof the urban areas and identify potential areas for redevelopmentbefore considering greenfield development. Urban expansions can onlyoccur at the time of a municipally initiated Comprehensive Review.
According to the policy statement municipalities should plan toavoid the unjustified and/or uneconomic expansion of infrastructure torural areas. Each member municipality will be required to protect primeagricultural areas and specialty crop areas for long-term use. Eachmember municipality will be required to set targets for intensificationand minimum densities and facilitate all forms of intensification andredevelopment, where appropriate.
A sufficient supply of employment lands in priority growth areas must be maintained.
Minimum targets for all types of housing, including affordable housing must be set by each municipality.
Bona fide farm retirement lots or residential infilling lots in prime agricultural areas are no longer allowed.
County provides summary
The county released an executive summary and appendix along withits full 85-page Growth Management Strategy (GMS) report on its website.
Residents will have an opportunity to review thestrategy and get more information on Nov. 6 at the Castleton Town Halland on Nov. 12 at Baltimore Recreational Centre. Open houses on bothdays are from 3 to 5 p. m. and 7 to 9 p. m.
The growth management strategy could have significant impact onthe county's seven lower-tier municipalities, as its intent is toallocate population and employment projections to municipalities in theCounty. The lower-tier municipalities are Cobourg, the townships ofHamilton, Cramahe and Alnwick- Haldimand and the Municipalities of PortHope, Brighton and Trent Hills.
A further intent of the GMS is to determine how much of theexpected population growth will occur as intensification within theexisting built-up areas. The GMS intends to make recommendations onwhat density of development should be established for new developmentareas in the county.
According to the provincial Growth Plan upper-tiermunicipalities must work towards increasing the intensification ofexisting built-up areas.
When contemplating expansions, municipalities will plan tomaintain or move significantly toward a minimum of one full-time jobper three residents within, or in the immediate vicinity of, smallcities or towns.
Because land-use planning is done at the lower-tier level, the strategy will force changes in some Official Plans.
Six tasks
The GMS process includes tasks that are intended to result in arecommendation on how the county and its municipalities will conform tothe Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The process has beendivided into six distinct phases that will result in:
1. The establishment of the Northumberland context and the basis for determining how to move forward;
2. The determination and evaluation of the actual supply of land available for development in the county;
3. An understanding and evaluation of the implications of provincial policy on Northumberland;
4. The identification of reasonable population and employment allocation alternatives based on Growth Plan forecasts;
5. The identification of possible alternative approaches toallocating population and employment growth in Northumberland, based onthe Northumberland context; and,
6. The development of a growth and development strategy that moves the county forward.
Population trends
Looking at the past five years, Brighton and Cobourg topped the population growth charts with Trent Hills at the bottom.
Brighton and Cobourg are becoming the retirement communities ofchoice in this area. They were also the leaders in the construction ofdetached homes in the past five years.
Alnwick-Haldimand, Cramahe and Hamilton townships have all seena decline in the number of new single detached dwellings constructed inthis time period.
Nearly 50% of new dwellings in the county in the past five years have been built in Cobourg.
The population projections from each of the lower-tiermunicipalities will have to be revised if they are to meet theprovincial growth plan. If the lowest estimates are taken from eachmunicipality the total for the county in 2031 will be nearly 15,000over the limit in the provincial document. If the highest growthprojections are counted, the county would be close to 20,000 over theprovincial goal in 2031.
In the Town of Cobourg Development Area C, the planneddevelopment would take more than the entire growth total for the entirecounty.
Employment ups and downs
The most prominent occupation group within the county is salesand services followed by business, finance and management.Manufacturing declined substantially in the past 20 years, and from2001 to 2006 the actual job loss total was 605, representing more than10% of total employment in that sector.
Tourism grew in Cobourg, Brighton and Port Hope. All other municipalities registered losses.
The most significant increases have been in the retail and health care sectors.
Land use
Almost 30% of the county's land is prime agricultural, 25% is rural and 16% environmentally protected.
On almost 94% of county land no development or limited development is permitted.
The remaining 6.20% of county land is included within a number of urban and rural settlement land use categories.
Infrastructure needs
The GMS recognizes the need for ongoing road and bridge work.
When it comes to water and waste water systems, Cobourg is best placed to accommodate growth.
The GMS report notes that Cobourg and Port Hope have taken stepsto upgrade services to accommodate growth. Port Hope has excesscapacity for future growth. Brighton and Hamilton Township have limitedcapacity. Growth in Colborne is not restricted by water supply but ishampered by lack of sewage treatment capacity. The same is true in allthree treatment systems in Trent Hills. There is no capacity inAlnwick- Haldimand.
The 10 water treatment systems in the county have a combinedreserve capacity for an additional 34,260 people. Over 53% of thisamount could be accommodated in Cobourg.
The nine waste-water treatment plants in the county have acombined reserve capacity for an additional 31,319 people. The twoplants in Cobourg alone have a waste-water treatment reserve capacityfor an additional 15,437 people (49.2% of the county total).
Using the land use framework provided by the province thecounty could accommodate between 86,000 and 135,000 more people onavailable land. This is significantly more than the 16,000 allocated inthe provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
The future The surplus of available land and water
treatment capacity over what the province has allocated leavesthe county facing some questions regarding the future, such as:Manufacturing is expected to continue to decline. How will this affectgrowth? What will attract new people to Northumberland, where will theylive and what services will be required? How will tourism trends affectgrowth? What implications are there in the increasing age of thepopulation? And how will growth to the east of Northumberland affectgrowth here?
Posted on October 28th